The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event. The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update predicts a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. This increase in temperature is expected to have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management, and the environment.
Although this report does not suggest that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement, WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas emphasizes the increasing frequency at which we will breach this level on a temporary basis. As a warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months, it will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, states that there is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. However, the chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.
Dr. Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report, warns that global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us further away from the climate we are used to. Key points from the report include a 98% chance of at least one of the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016 and a 98% chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years.
Arctic warming is disproportionately high, with the temperature anomaly predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters. Predicted precipitation patterns suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall over the Amazon and parts of Australia.
As the Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, the new report highlights the urgency of addressing human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and implementing climate change adaptation measures. The upcoming World Meteorological Congress will discuss strategies to strengthen weather and climate services in support of these efforts.
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