Ignoring Taiwan for the sake of U.S. – PRC relations may prove counter-productive

Photo courtsey of Afagen on Flickr

Secretary Clinton has gotten it two-thirds right:  Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have all had special political, security, and economic relationships with the United States since the end of World War II. All three regularly face increasingly devastating economic news, as exports dry up. They are all struggling, to different degrees and in their own ways, with domestic political uncertainty. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan also are in the middle of a changing East Asia, uncertain of what lies ahead in the international realm. Yet Clinton visited only Japan and Korea on her recent trip to Asia – she can’t realistically visit Taiwan for diplomatic reasons – and gave only those two countries substantial mention in her first major foreign policy speech as Secretary of State.

The other third, the U.S. – Taiwan relationship, is certainly the most delicate and technically challenging, given that the U.S. does not have official diplomatic relations. A U.S. Secretary of State cannot visit Taiwan without setting off a diplomatic firestorm, but more frequent and higher level contact between the U.S. and Taiwan is possible. This would have to be done in a diplomatically delicate way, but with current lower tensions across the Strait and increasing economic interdependence between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the current dire economic situation in Taiwan provides an opening to increased contact, in the name of maintaining stability. I have heard suggestions that Taiwanese officials could be invited to Washington to meet with a state department official other than the Secretary, or that an Assistant Secretary of State could visit Taiwan. If done carefully, these visits could foster dialog without suggesting a change in the formal relationship with Taiwan.

That the U.S. has reaffirmed its commitment to Japan and Korea is a good sign for stability in the region. It is a further good sign that the Obama Administration and Secretary Clinton want to strengthen the ties, which have been somewhat neglected. Like Japan and Korea, strong relations with Taiwan are important for stability. With Taiwan, however, a weak economic situation and internal and external political uncertainty carries security perils, as Taiwan could see its already low negotiating power vis a vis the PRC decline further. This would add more uncertainty to an already fragile situation.

The U.S. position is that Taiwan and the PRC should come to a resolution, eventually, that is acceptable to both sides and not imposed by the PRC on the Taiwanese people. The U.S. also speaks of the need to maintain the status quo, though the major players involved have different views of what exactly that is. An economically battered and politically unstable Taiwan threatens the stability the U.S. positions seek to uphold. Taiwan and the PRC thankfully are seeing improved relations and appear far from an escalation at the moment. Since a large escalation, especially military conflict, would likely draw in the U.S., a peaceful resolution should remain everyone’s goal. A stable, secure, and economically healthy Taiwan makes attaining that goal more likely, and the U.S. has a role to play in that regard. It is therefore in all parties’ best interest for the U.S. to have a strong working relationship with Taiwan.

Update by the author: Right now, there is an unprecedented opportunity for high-level but unofficial contact. Christopher Hill, the current Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Head of the U.S. delegation to the Six-Party Talks, is being re-assigned from those posts and will soon be nominated as Ambassador to Iraq. He should visit Taiwan once he resigns the post of Assistant Secretary but before he returns to Washington. In this way, he would be much like the diplomats who serve in the American Institute in Taiwan, America’s de facto embassy in Taiwan, who serve either when retired or officially on leave from the government. The fact that the visit would be in an unofficial capacity would make the trip less controversial than it might otherwise be. In addition, stability in the region would benefit from one last act from a preeminent and well-regarded official in the region.